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Los Angeles Mayor Polls 2022: Analysis and Insights – Spaxton School

Los Angeles Mayor Polls 2022: Analysis and Insights

We are picking a last-day surge in favor of Karen Bass. Since no polls were released, we look at Google Search Closely. On Google Search, Caruso led Bass by 40% until two days before voting day. On the last day, Bass crushed the gap to just 13% points suggesting a huge swing toward her from Bass
What else has happened? In the 6 days prior to yesterday, Bass was (-14%) on Social Media (California State). That has crashed to (-6%) in the last 24 hours. Rick Caruso on the other hand was also (-14%) in the 6 days prior to yesterday, which has increased to -21%
Hypothesis: A poll released yesterday showing Bass with a 6-point lead is helping Democrats consolidate behind Bass.

Election Day Update

Counting

Rick Carusso 47.8%
Karen Bass: 52.2%

65% counted

LA Mayor Race Polls 2022

Latest Poll – Karen Bass:45%, Rick Caruso: 41%

Polls Average – Karen Bass: 42.6%, Rick Caruso: 37.3%

Google Trends-Karen Bass:48%, Rick Caruso: 52%

The number 1 question voters are asking in Los Angeles is

Is Rick Caruso a Republican?

Since 2000, Democrats have tended to win more than 60% of the vote and as much as 70%. So it is unclear if the voters searching this information on Google are Republicans or Democrats, particularly in this environment when the Democratic party is not seen positively by a vast majority of the electorate. As far as the facts go, Caruso is a registered Democrat after switching from Republican to Independent a few years ago.

Karen Bass on the other hand won her last Congressional election with 85% of the votes. Her district covers some parts of the city of Los Angeles. While she may be on par with Caruso in the polls, she can rely on a large Democratic party base to win the election in November. However, Rick Caruso is attempting to win more than 50% of the vote in the primary and end the election now.

LA Mayor Race Polls 2022: Who is Ahead?

Date(s)	Karen Bass	Rick Caruso
Crowdwisdom360 Poll of Polls	November 7th	42.6%	37.3%
UC Berkeley	October 31st	45%	41%
J Wallin Opinion Research	October 17th	37%	40%
UC Berkeley	September 26th	46%	31%

LA Mayor Race Polls 2022: Google Search Volumes

The Google Trend data shows Karen Bass is ahead of Rick Caruso.

Karen Bass	Rick Caruso
November 7th	48%	52%
October 31st	50%	50%
October 11th	54%	46%

LA Mayor Race Polls 2022: Social Media Sentiments

Karen Bass	Rick Caruso
November 7th	-28.2%	-51.6%
October 31st	-30.7%	-53.6%
October 11th	-61.6%	-44.1%

LA Mayor Candidates Party Affiliation

The Primary election is non-partisan but here are the party affiliations of both the candidates

Karen Bass: Democratic Party

Rick Caruso: Republican Until 2012, No Party between 2012 and 2022, Democratic Party from 2022

LA Mayor Polls 2022: Latest Videos

LA Mayor Polls 2022: Bass and Caruso Controversies

Karen Bass is perceived to have moved a little to the right given the Caruso threat (LA Times)
Caruso as Chairman of the USC Board of Trustees has been criticised for his poor handling of the George Tyndall sexual abuse scandal (Wikipedia)
Caruso may have faked a claim that he was accountable for a 38% drop in violence in LA when he was president of the LAPC (KNOCK_LA)
Karen Bass claims it was not right on her part to call Cuban Dictator Fidel Castro Commander in Chief (Politico)
Karen Bass claimed Scientology was not exposed before 2010 (when she praised them) despite multiple probes before that year (Business Insider)
Caruso had apparently rejected appointment of a Black LAPD chief in 2022 and this led to a furore (Yahoo)

LA Mayor Polls 2022: Top Candidates for LA Mayor

Karen Bass

Karen Bass is a U.S. House of Representatives from California’s 37th Congressional district and has been Speaker of the California State Assembly. . Bass had previously worked as a physician’s assistant and was a faculty member at the University of Southern California.

Rick Caruso

Rick Caruso is the CEO of Caruso Affiliated. He is the developer of The Grove at Farmers Market and The Americana at Brand. Caruso has also been the president of the University of Southern California board of trustees. He served as the president of the Los Angeles Board of Police Commissioners and is a former member of the Los Angeles Board of Water and Power and the Los Angeles Coliseum Commission.

LA Mayor Race 2022: Meet your Mayor Quiz to choose a candidate

LA Mayor Polls 2022: How is the Election Conducted?

The Los Angeles Mayoral primary election is a non-partisan election, which means all the candidates run in one single primary irrespective of their political affiliation. Like the partisan election, the non-partisan election also has two rounds of the election, the first primary and the second the General.

However, there is no party representation in the non-partisan election, unlike the partisan election. Los Angeles follows the rule of a top-two primary by California law which means, the top two candidates from the primary election advance to the General election. Even if a candidate receives over 50% of the votes in the primary election, the General election must be held where the fight is between the top two candidates in the primary election.

Rick Caruso Mayor Campaign Views on Various issues

Karen Bass Mayor Campaign Views on Various Issues

Read: 2022 Wyoming House Race Polls

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