The 2022 Nevada Senatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022, with incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto running for a second term as the only Latina in the senate. Nevada has remained a swing state all century. The Democrat and Republican primaries will take place on June 14th, 2022.
Election Day Update
Counting
>95% counted
Laxalt will have to win about 65% of the estimated 20k votes to win the race
In a new batch of 23.2k ballots counted in Clark County, here are the #nvsen results:
– Cortez Masto received 14.1k votes (60.4 percent)
– Laxalt received 8.2k votes (35.4 percent)Race shifts from Laxalt leading statewide by 863 votes to CCM leading by nearly 5k.
— Sean Golonka (@s_golonka) November 13, 2022
Exit Polls
Nevada Senate Polls: The Republican nominee Adam Laxalt is ahead of Catherine Cortez Masto as per the latest polls.
Latest Nevada Senate Polls: Catherine Cortez Masto: 44% Adam Laxalt: 50%
Average of Polls (Last 3 Polls): Catherine Cortez Masto: 44% Adam Laxalt: 46.6%
Last 7 days Google Trend Data: Catherine Cortez Masto: 57% Adam Laxalt: 43%.
Social Media Sentiments: Catherine Cortez Masto: -20.6% Adam Laxalt: -3.6%
After being ahead of Adam Laxalt since the very beginning, Catherine Cortez, the Democratic Nominee has been trailing in polls since the mid of August 2022. However, in the last 2 months, Adam Laxalt has been able to narrow the gap with Catherine Cortez. The last two polls have given Catherine Cortez a narrow 3 points lead over Adam Laxalt.
As per the average of polls (last three polls), Catherine Cortez is trailing by 3% over Adam Laxalt. However, the Google search volume for Catherine Cortez is higher than for Laxalat and even her social media sentiment is better as compared to that of Adam Laxalt.
To answer this question, we go back to the last Nevada Senate election when Catherine Cortez was up against the Republican Joe Heck. Catherine Cortez won the election narrowly, she polled 47.1% of the total votes while Joe Heck received 44.7% votes, and Cortez won by 2.4%.
Now let us see what did the polls predict back then. The polls for the last Nevada Senate election predicted a very close fight between Cortez and Heck. In most of the polls, Cortez was ahead of Heck by 1% and the maximum lead that polls gave Cortez over Heck was 5%.
Similarly, even for the upcoming Nevada Senate election, the polls have predicted the race to be a close one. Laxalt has been able to maintain a lead of 3%. With most of the polls having Laxalt in lead, the election is turning out to be in favor of the Republican Adam Laxalt.
| Poll source | Date(s) | Cortez Masto (D) | Laxalt (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average of Polls | Nov 7th | 44% | 46.6% |
| Insider Advantage | Nov 4th | 44% | 50% |
| KA Consulting | Nov 3rd | 45% | 44% |
| Cygnal | Nov 2nd | 43% | 46% |
Nevada Senate Race: Why the Hispanic Voters Will Play An Important Role in Nevada Senate Race?
As per the demographic composition of Nevada, around 50% of the population are White citizens while Black comprises around 11% of the population. Apart from these two, Hispanics are around 25% of the total population.
The latest survey shows that Adam Laxalt has the support of 51% of the white voters while a maximum of black voters back Catherine Cortez. Now looking at the current situation, the most important role in determining the result of the Nevada Senate Race will be played by the Hispanics. The survey shows that Cortez enjoys the support of 46% of the Hispanic voters and has maximum support from the minority voters.
If Adam Laxalt is able to dent this equation, he may emerge victorious but as of now, Catherine Cortez commands mostly over these minority voters of Nevada.
On the issue of abortion, 5% of Nevada citizens want abortion to be illegal in all cases. 31% think it should be legal in special cases. 28% of the population wants it to be legal in all cases.
In some other cases, 18% think it should be legal up to 15 weeks of pregnancy, and 17% think it should be legal up to 24 weeks of pregnancy.
Nevada Senate Polls: General Elections, Google Trends For Last 7 days
| Last 7 Days | |
| Catherine Cortez Masto | 57% |
| Adam Laxalt | 43% |
Nevada Senate Polls: Social Media Sentiments
| Last 7 Days | |
| Catherine Cortez Masto | -20.6% |
| Adam Laxalt | -3.6% |
In the last Nevada Senate Election, that is in 2016, the incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto was elected with 47.2% of the vote share.
She defeated her Republican rival, Joe Heck, by a huge margin. Cortez won Clark county which gave her a clear mandate of three-quarters of the state’s population. She defeated Heck by almost 27000 votes.
Nevada is the only state in the union that allows voters to choose “none of these candidates” which tends to garner around 2% every election. However, in 2016 that number rose to 3.8% allowing Cortez to win with only 47.1% of the vote as she only won one of Nevada’s 17 counties.
Catherine Cortez Masto (D)
| Raised: | $29,145,846 |
| Spent: | $19,516,028 |
| Cash on Hand: | $9,850,372 |
The incumbent senator of Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto has been able to raise over $29 M in funds to fund her campaign. Of the total funds, she has already spent around $19.5 M and is now left with nearly $10M cash on hand.
For Catherine Cortez, a major portion of her contribution is by the Large Individual Contributions which account for around 54% of the total contribution. Small Individual Contributions (≤ $200) form around 38% of her total contributors.
Adam Laxalt (R)
| Raised: | $7,260,266 |
| Spent: | $5,112,902 |
| Cash on Hand: | $2,147,364 |
Donald Trump endorsed Adam Laxalt is lagging behind Catherine Cortez in terms of funding. Adam Laxalt has been able to raise around $7.2 M in the total fund. Of the total funds raised, the Laxalt campaign has already over $5M. Now the campaign is left with slightly over $2M cash in hand.
The major portion of her contribution is by the Large Individual Contributions which account for around 76% of the total contribution. Small Individual Contributions (≤ $200) form around 17% of his total contributors.
Catherine Cortez-Masto has all but secured the Democratic primary as she faces no credible opposition. The GOP has more people running but Laxalt is the overwhelming favorite. Here are the candidates running in the primary:
Republican Primary
In the upcoming Nevada Senate Race, the incumbent senator, Catherine Cortez Masto will be running as a Democratic Party candidate. She is up against the Republican challenger Adam Laxalt.
Before becoming the Senator from Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto worked four years as a civil attorney in Las Vegas and two years as a criminal prosecutor for the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Washington, D.C. In 2006 she was elected as Nevada Attorney General.
As per the latest 2020 Census Figures, the voting age demographics of the state are as follows:
| Demographics | Proportion |
| White American | 50% |
| Black American | 10.9% |
| Hispanic American | 25.3% |
| Asian American | 11.3% |
| Native American | 3.2% |
| Others | 1.4% |
White voters make up about 50% of the state’s voting-age population but form a larger majority of the eligible voter base as Asian and Hispanic voters tend to be immigrants who cannot vote. However, minority voters are a crucial voting bloc in the state and Republicans managed to make inroads into them in 2020. They will be hoping to continue that trend this year as they try to retake the Governor’s mansion.
Clark County is the most important county in the state and is home to Las Vegas and a majority of the state voters including a large number of Asian and Black voters. Democrats almost always win the county but margins are crucial here. Clinton won it by 11 points, while Biden won it by 9 points but made up lost votes in Washoe County, home to Reno.
The county is more suburban and white than Clark and swung to Biden, helping Biden win the state by the same margin as Clinton. These two counties will decide the election, and any Republican must cut down Democratic margins here to win the state as every other county in the state is safely Republican. Those counties are not as populated but will be decisive in a GOP victory as long as they can keep the margin close in Washoe and Clark.
Nevada Senate Race 2022 Polls: Last Senate Election
In the last Nevada Senate Election, that is in 2016, the incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto was elected with 47.2% of the vote share.
She defeated her Republican rival, Joe Heck, by a huge margin. Cortez won Clark county which gave her a clear mandate of three-quarters of the state’s population. She defeated Heck by almost 27000 votes.
Nevada is the only state in the union that allows voters to choose “none of these candidates” which tends to garner around 2% every election. However, in 2016 that number rose to 3.8% allowing Cortez to win with only 47.1% of the vote as she only won one of Nevada’s 17 counties.
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