A DEMOGRAPHIC TRAGEDY is unfolding in Russia. Over the past three years the country has lost around 2m more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war, disease and exodus. The life expectancy of Russian males aged 15 fell by almost five years, to the same level as in Haiti.
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The “Graying” of the Russian Population
The decline in fertility is contributing to a rapid aging of the Russian population. Between 1959 and 1990, the number of persons aged 60 and over doubled. As a result, at the beginning of the 1990s, the proportion of the population aged 60 or over reached 16 percent.
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The Ukrainian population was already shrinking rapidly before the war due to low birth rates, high levels of mortality and high emigration rates. In a new report, scientists from the Joint Research Centre (JRC) estimate that the country could be losing over a third of its population by 2052.
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China is forecast to lose almost half of its people by 2100, plunging from more than 1.4 billion to 771 million inhabitants. Russia, Germany, South Korea and Spain are all set to join this downward movement, with their populations beginning to decline by 2030.
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China’s population is now declining. Last week, officials announced that 2022 marked the first drop in total population in six decades, since the famine of the Great Leap Forward. This long-expected event is the result of decades-long declines in Chinese fertility rates.
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But after 1968 the global population growth rate started a long decline, and in the period 2022–2027 the UN estimates it to be about 0.9%, less than half of its peak during the period 1962 – 1968.
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South Korea has the world’s lowest fertility rate, a struggle with lessons for us all. A woman holding her daughter looks at a view of Seoul in 2019. The fertility rate in South Korea, which has the world’s lowest rate, hit 0.78 in February.
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FREY: No, the US isn’t dealing with a shrinking population like China. I think we’re going to continue to have growth, but much slower growth. These last few years, the pandemic created very slow growth, almost flat growth.
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Overall, birth rates have plummeted for Americans over the past five decades: “Between 1976 and 2018, the mean number of children ever born per woman declined, from three children to two,” according to the report’s authors, Gladys Martinez and Kimberly Daniels.
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Geographer Chris Tucker estimates that 3 billion is a sustainable number, provided human societies rapidly deploy less harmful technologies and best management practices. Other estimates of a sustainable global population also come in at considerably less than the current population of 8 billion.
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By the start of 2022, its population was estimated to be 145,6 million, with 3,358 births a day being more than cancelled out by a daily death rate of 3,663, according to Statistica. Between 1 January 2022 and 1 January this year, the Russian population was estimated to have decreased by approximately 560,000.
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The most important one was the general population decline in Russia. At the same time, many economic migrants from Ukraine moved to Russia for better paid jobs and careers. It is estimated that there are as many as 300,000 legally registered migrants.
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The current Ukrainian birth rate is 11 births/1,000 population, and the death rate is 16.3 deaths/1,000 population. A factor contributing to the relatively high death is a high mortality rate among working-age males from preventable causes such as alcohol poisoning and smoking.
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Russia is a multinational state, home to over 193 ethnic groups nationwide. In the 2021 Census, roughly 71.7% of the population were ethnic Russians, 16.7% of the population were ethnic minorities and 11.6% did not state an ethnicity.
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Western researchers usually think of older adults as those who are aged 65 and older, based on a retirement age of about 65 years.
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Fewer babies, coupled with longer life expectancy equals a country that ages faster. Although declining fertility plays a role, the driving force behind America’s aging is the baby boomers. As one of the largest generations in the country, boomers leave a substantial imprint on the population.
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The U.S. birthrate is at its lowest since the 1970s, and that’s because more American millennials and Gen Z are deciding not to have kids than previous generations.
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Aside from the fact that the increased use of contraceptives like IUDs and the improved coverage of birth control under the Affordable Care Act have led to a decline in unintended births; Hayford speculated it could be due to fertility struggles, socio economic difficulties, or simply because people are now realizing …
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Countries with the highest birth rate 2023
Niger had the highest birth rate in the world in 2023, with a birth rate of 46.86 births per 1,000 inhabitants. Angola, Benin, Mali, and Uganda followed with more than 40 children born in each of the countries per 1,000 population in that year.
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New York’s population shrunk by 0.9 percent between July 2021 and July 2022, Illinois lost 0.8 percent of its population, and Louisiana (also 0.8 percent), West Virginia (0.6 percent), and Hawaii (0.5 percent) rounded out the top five jurisdictions for population loss.
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I had never seen the word before and a search revealed scant usage of the term, but CNBC warned, “Researchers expect the U.S. to face underpopulation… .” With over 330 million people, America is the third most populated country, after China and India.
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As of 2020, White Americans are the racial majority, with non-Hispanic whites representing 57.8% of the population. Hispanic and Latino Americans are the largest ethnic minority, comprising 18.7% of the population, while Black or African Americans are the second largest racial minority, making up 12.1%.
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By 1990, the fertility trends show three distinct groups defined by race and education: less educated blacks have the highest fertility (TFR = 2.2–2.4), educated whites and blacks have the lowest fertility (TFR = 1.6–1.8). Less educated whites have fertility levels between these two groups (TFR = 2.0–2.1).
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The term one-child policy refers to a population planning initiative in China implemented between 1980 and 2015 to curb the country’s population growth by restricting many families to a single child.
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